Expert's Analysis: Will the UPA Government Survive?

--By Sagar Satapathy

The question is doing round in the political and media circle in the past few days. If we look at the recent developments, the fall of the UPA government seems imminent. But the timing may not be just perfect for the Left to pull down the government. The Indo-US nuclear deal widened the rift between the Congress and Left Parties. The issue has snowballed to such an extent that both sides have reached the point of no return.

The recently concluded CPI(M) core group meeting not only rejected the Nuke Deal, but also authorized the Politburo to take all necessary steps to block the deal. On the other hand, the PM is unrelenting and even sought Japan's support to see the deal go through. For the first time, Dr. Manmohan Singh showed that he cannot be taken for granted and can take his own decision when it comes to nation's interest.

If the Left pulls out of the government, where it will go? It can't go with the BJP to pull down the government. In such a scenario, it will be forced to let a minority government continue. Also, no party will want to face the elections on a non-significant issue like Indo-US Nuclear deal. If the snap polls are held and again there is a hung parliament, the Left will lose its face and will be forced to support the UPA in order to prevent BJP from coming to the power. The UNPA holds little command and if they join the Left, the magic figure of 272 will still elude them.

So, what's in store now. In all probability, the fight between the UPA and Left will continue, but sudden fall of the government is unlikely. If there will be an election, it might be held in February 2008 with both Left and UPA building their base and finally decide to part ways. There will be a tacit understanding to this effect. So, who will be the Biggest Loser? It is the public, who always get fooled by its politicians. No ethics, no moral values, no principles. Only power talks.