The Big Number Game: UPA holds an edge over Opposition

--By Sagar Satapathy, Editor-in-Chief

The confidence motion moved by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh will be put into vote tomorrow evening. However, the picture has become clear with the UPA getting more support and BJP backtracking on toppling the government. The UPA has garnered more support and abstention, which will ultimately help it sail through the trust vote. On the other hand, the BJP does not seem serious in toppling the government.

The BJP just wants to corner the government on various issues and gain mileage from highlighting the core issues. The BJP can take moral high ground, as it did not try to poach any UPA MPs, whereas the UPA poached some BJP and JD(U) MPs. They would either vote for the government or remain absent. According to latest estimates, the UPa has already mustered the support of 269 votes. A few more abstention may also help the party.

According to political analysts, BJP just pretends to be serious about toppling the government, but in reality it does not. The BJP knows that if the government falls, a sympathy vote in favour of PM Dr. Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party cannot be ruled out. Also, BJP won't tolerate Mayawati's elevation in national politics and it would never support her as the Prime Ministerial candidate. If BJP goes to people after 8 months, it may well enjoy an edge over the Congress over key issues like price rise, inflation and terrorism.

Meanwhile, BJP has denied reports that it has revoked suspension order on Gujarat MP Somabhai Patel. He has decided to go with the UPA during the trust vote, saying he is not bound to follow party whip as a suspended MP. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress said it does not support the nuclear deal, but would abstain from voting. According to latest reports, Ajit Singh and H D Deve Gowda may switch sides again if they are not assured of an opposition win. The number game continues....